POE Story : USA 2012


Obama King of Big Data

Orca vs Narval

2 à 3 points d’écarts grâce à une base de données ?

Centralisation des millions de données de 2008,

mesure de tout ce qui est mesurable, ((29 000 personnes sondées dans l’Ohio seulement),

dans une cave sans fenêtre surnommée « la cave », l’équipe Obama dont Jérémie Bird et Harper Reed a mis en place un système, Narval, visant à identifier personnellement les électeurs et leurs préférences, prédire lesquels pouvaient être convaincus, tester messages et pub….66 000 simulations électorales possibles tous les soirs.

75 % du profil de l’électeur étaient déterminés par sexe, âge, race, quartier et votes précédents, 25 % par ses préférences de consommation sur la toile.

Cette analyse a permis de lever des fonds avec plus d’efficacité que jamais.

Les femmes de 40 à 49 ans sont très enthousiastes à l’idée de verser qques dollars pour dîner avec Georges Clooney, Obama l’a fait et réalisé le plus gros jackpot de l’histoire en une soirée.

Enfin, rien ne vaut le facteur humain pour convaincre d’aller voter, porte à porte, Facebook via la reco des amis et courrier personnalisé pour rappeler qu’ils n’avaient pas voté en énumérant la liste des voisins qui avaient accompli leur devoir civique…

…facteur humain data driven…car sur Facebook, comme Twitter, Obama avait fait la différence dès le début de la campagne,

avec 19M d’amis et 7,3M de followers,

alors que Romney finit la campagne avec  11,9M et 1,7M

vs Obama à 34M et 24M sur la ligne d’arrivée.

 

une campagne à 6 Milliards de dollars :

2,6 Milliards investis cette année,

moins qu’en 2008 (2,8 Milliards dus à la primaire démocrate).

Les deux candidats et leurs partis auront investi près de 2 Milliards

+ 142 Millions pour les conventions

+ 528 Millions d’organisations extérieures (eg Super Pacs comme American Crossroads, 158 M pour Romney, comme Restore our Future 125 M…Priority USA Action pour Obama a fait moitié moins)

6 Milliards au total pour la présidentielle et le Congrès…avec des Milliardaires comme Sheldon Adelson, 40 M sur Romney…et 214 Millions  levés au 17 octobre auprès de contributeurs de moins de 200 dollars, 30 % des fonds levés par Obama.

1 Milliard investis en TV,

50 % des budgets des candidats,

100 % ou presque des budgets de Super Pacs.

1 Milliard investi sur les 9 à 10 états qui peuvent basculer,

500 Millions sur 3 états Ohio, Virginie, Floride.

 

With help of Super PACs, Republicans outspent Democrats, but targeting and message control won the Day.

In the final weeks leading up to election, there was a last-minute rush of advertising by both the Democrats and Republicans. While the Obama campaign outspent the Romney campaign, super PACs and other groups affiliated with the Republican candidate kept the contest even, according to Kantar CMAG. One difference, however, was that the Obama campaign seemed to focus on get-out-the-vote efforts while the Republican forces continued promoting Mr. Romney or hitting Mr. Obama on the issues.

That difference could be seen online as well, where the Romney campaign was, until Sunday at any rate, still fundraising in some regions as Mr. Obama switched almost completely to get-out-the-vote efforts, including a promoted tweet and a Facebook push that sent notices to people suggesting they contact friends in swing states and encourage them to vote.

One of the keys to success for President Barack Obama’s reelection bid was its masterful use of data. But lost in the hype is this: The administration supports a browser-based do not track system that, if pervasive, would throw a wrench into the data-collection tactics that empowered the campaign.

Even today BarackObama.com features data-tracking cookies from several online ad and analytics firms.

The Mitt Romney and Obama campaigns spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in 2012 on data and related services to enhance their own voter contact information, inform their online and offline messaging and target ads. At the same time, Congress is inspecting the practices of firms that buy, sell and filter consumer data for corporate marketers.

The Obama campaign famously built the largest data team in political history to integrate data gleaned via social media and the web with offline data, such as shopping information and voter-file data. As early as July of 2011, predictive-modeling and data-mining analysts were in demand for the in-house analytics department in Chicago.

Key to that team’s success, wrote Michael Scherer in Time, was this « single massive system that could merge the information collected from pollsters, fundraisers, field workers and consumer databases as well as social-media and mobile contacts with the main Democratic voter files in the swing states. » That data fed into many strategies, from helping media buyers find unconventional — and thus, less expensive — TV buys (FX’s « Sons of Anarchy » was one), to figuring out which celebrity messages were most likely to get high-value fundraisers to open their wallets.

 

Super PAC made the tone of the race even more negative and the messaging even more repetitive.

As of October 19, the three biggest advertisers in the presidential race in terms of ad occurrences were the Obama campaign (455,733), the four Republican groups combined (219,510), and the Romney campaign (167,900), in that order.

Obama’s spot count was 81% negative, 19% positive — meaning that 81% of his spots contained critical mentions of Romney.

Romney’s was 86% negative, 14% positive — meaning that 86% of his spots contained critical mentions of Obama. The four groups’ collective spot count was 94% negative, 6% positive.

Until this week, three of the four had aired only negative ads (and the same is true for Priorities USA Action, the lone Democratic presidential super PAC). Restore Our Future was the only leading group advertiser on the Republican side to have aired any positive spots about Romney before October 23, when Crossroads GPS hit the air with its first positive ad of the race.

They also focused the messaging more on economic issues with their relentless criticism of Obama on the stimulus package, unemployment and the deficit.

 

2012, Oct 22 : Obama had a 93 % « share of voice » in online ads in September :

The Barack Obama and Mitt Romney camps may be emptying their war chests this month to go head-to-head in TV spots in swing states, but the online battle is a more lopsided affair.

According to research by the analytics company Moat, the Obama campaign had a 93.3% share of voice in terms of display-impression volume in September across the top 20,000 publishers, compared with the Romney campaign’s 6.7%. And for the period between Sept. 1 and Oct. 14, the Obama camp had 497 creatives deployed across the web compared with the Romney camp’s 90.

 

Oct 5, 2012 : TV ads in this year’s U.S. presidential race are more negative in tone than in any of the previous three White House campaigns,

according to a report today by the Wesleyan Media Project.

Almost two-thirds of presidential ads on the air between June 1 and Sept. 30 were negative, compared to about 40% during that period in 2008. In 2004, 34% of the ads in that period were negative, while for 2000 the figure was 18%, the report said.

Fewer than 8% of presidential ads on the air between Sept. 9-30 were positive. Ads promoting President Barack Obama during that three-week period dropped from about 28% in 2008 to 2.5% this year. Ads promoting the Republican presidential candidate, Senator John McCain in 2008 and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney this year, declined from 32% to 15%.

« It will come as no surprise to those who have been bombarded with advertising in key markets, but 2012 is another record-setting year in terms of the amount of negativity we’re seeing in the presidential race, » Erika Franklin Fowler, co-director of the Wesleyan Media Project, said in a news release.

The project is associated with Wesleyan University in Middletown, Conn. The presidential advertising study analyzed data gathered by Kantar Media’s CMAG, an ad tracker based in New York.

 

The hot medium of 2012 is cable. Local cable.

In 2008, Obama lit up the internet and the sexy medium was digital. But now he’s just another incumbent president locked in a tight race, closely following the playbook of the last incumbent to win a tight race and he’s relying heavily on TV’s push as well as the internet’s pull.

President George W. Bush’s campaign applied national cable advertising to storied effect in 2004, when the race for the White House sprawled across a dozen states and buying local cable for all those markets would have cost almost the same as national.

In 2012, with a nine-state battlefield and more cost-efficient local cable sales policies, Obama’s campaign is leveraging spot cable to what they hope will be similar effect. Their Republican foes have followed suit to varying degrees.

As a result, Kantar Media CMAG anticipates that local cable will account for roughly 20% of all presidential-campaign ad dollars that go toward TV, or at least $200 million, as well as 20% of spending on all political advertising. We expect digital to account for about 6% of all political ad spend.

From the start of the general election campaign on April 10 to September 16, Obama aired 311,433 spots on local cable, according to NCC Media — 9,000 more spots than the 302,134 he aired on local broadcast, national network and national cable, per Kantar Media CMAG. His top cable networks are the Food Network, HGTV, CNN, ESPN, The History Channel and USA. He’s been buying local news channels in North Carolina and Florida; Spanish local cable such as CNN Espanol, History Espanol and ESPN Espanol; and high-indexing women’s programming.

Romney began buying local cable after the Democratic convention ended, in tune with his campaign’s strategy to build momentum from August onward. The 12,323 spots he aired in 10 days account for 11% of his 114,471 overall general-election spot count, again per NCC and CMAG data. The Romney campaign’s top choices are CNN, FOX News, HGTV and Lifetime. Translation: Republicans and women.

Republican groups filled the void for Romney on local cable just as they did on broadcast. Two pro-Romney super PACs, Restore Our Future and American Future Fund, together aired more than 220,000 spots.

 

2012, Sept 11: Michelle Obama FLOS (First Lady Of Search)

A Pew Research study that was released this week showed that Democrats are more likely to mix social media and political activity.

They might be more likely to mix politics and search, too, at least judging from data comparing search activity from Michelle Obama and Ann Romney that Google has shared today.
According to the Google Politics and Elections team, search interest Tuesday night in Michelle Obama during the first night of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) surpassed search interest in Ann Romney one week earlier during the first night of the Republican National Convention (RNC).
In other words, FLOTUS (First Lady of the United States) is also FLOS (First Lady of Search).
Aside from how they compared against each other, the wives of both presidential candidates proved to be the top searched for speakers for the first day of the respective conventions.
For its part, Yahoo tweeted this morning that Michelle Obama searches were up 288 percent. (But there’s no corresponding tweet from a week ago to use for comparison.)
Twitter, like Google, also revealed today that DNC-related activity was up last night compared to last week’s RNC.
Twitter says there was a peak of 28,003 tweets-per-minute (TPM) at the end of the First Lady’s speech — not only is that significantly more than the 6,195 TPM for Ann Romney, but also nearly double the 14,289 TPM during Republican nominee Mitt Romney’s acceptance speech last week.

2012, Sept : 70 % of Obama’s budget is collected from less than $1 000 donors’ contributions

That’s why it’s crucial for Obama to keep it’s digital edge vs Romney like he did in 2008 vs Mc Cain.

So far they’ve been more active than the Republicans :

– 614 posts in June vs 168,

– 29 tweets per day in June vs 1,

– Obama has one specific Facebook Page for each of the 50 States vs no geographic segmentation for Romney,

– Obama’s web site take into consideration 18 groups like Gays, Afro Americans, Latinos, Veterans…

– Romney has 1 M followers on Twitter, 20 times less than Barack Obama.

2012, July 4 : the most expensive election ever

Experts predict the candidates could invest directly $2B.

April 15, Romney got $120,6M vs $225M for Obama.

in June Romney collected $76M vs $ 60M for Obama…

If Billionnaires are more in favor of the Republicans, like Sheldon ADELSON who announced he’s ready to invest $100M to kick Obama out,

Obama got $14M from bankers by the end of April and he’s performing better with the « small donors », $109,5M vs $15M only for Mitt Romney.

2012, March 9 : Super Pacs could drive total 2012 election spending to $9.8B

A study by the research firm Borrell Associates projects that election spending in 2012 will reach a stratospheric $9.8 billion, vs. about $7 billion in 2008. (The figures include 13,000 statewide, congressional and municipal races, as well as the presidential election.)

Spending by PACs, national political party committees, and the super PACs is projected to be $4.76 billion, or 48% of all spending. Super PACs were created by the Supreme Court’s 2010 Citizens United decision, in which it determined that spending by corporations and unions can’t be restricted.

Cable TV is the main beneficiary.

The report estimates that $468 million was spent on cable in 2008 and that the number will roughly double this year.

Borrell also expects to see more municipal candidates, such as aspiring school-board and city-council members, vying for TV time, as lower levels of political office rachet up their campaign spending from cycle to cycle.

Online spending is also expected to get a huge bump and is projected to reach $159.2 million, a sixfold increase from 2008, though it would still represent only 1.5% of overall campaign spending. (Some political strategists estimate that it will be higher for many races this cycle,  approaching 12%.)

Spending on paid search is projected to rise, because buying up Google keywords with opponents names’ and other campaign buzzwords has become a basic step in the political playbook, though paid search’s share of online spending could fall to about one-third from 49% in 2008. Meanwhile, targeted display ads are projected to get a larger share, approaching 30%, as candidates look to hone digital messaging for specific audiences.

2012, February 20 :

As candidates near that peculiar phenomenon of the presidential-primary season known as « Super Tuesday, » the GOP rivals of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney may not be able to afford the advertising blitz needed to carry that day.

Having spent most of the money they raised last year, the Republican candidates are taking advantage of a lull in the campaign to frantically seek more cash so they can compete in the seven states that hold primaries and the three that hold caucuses March 6.

According to Federal Election Commission reports,Mr. Romney raised about $56 million last year, Rep.Ron Paul of Texas raised almost $26 million and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich $12.6 million.

Mr. Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania whose recent victories in Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado have turned the bid for the GOP nomination into a two-man contest between him and Mr. Romney, raised the least — a paltry $2.2 million.

The question then, is will Mr. Santorum, who will likely continue to have a fundraising disadvantage, be able to afford the kind of advertising needed to get his message across a wide swath of the nation on Super Tuesday?

Mr. Santorum’s campaign has raised about $3 million after his sweep of victories last week.

But Mr. Sabato said the candidate is still very dependent on « his billionaire financial angel from Wyoming, » Foster Friess, a donor to conservative causes who made his fortune in mutual funds. Mr. Friess is a major contributor to the Red, White and Blue PAC, which spent nearly half a million dollars in last-minute ads in Iowa that helped give Mr. Santorum a surprise victory in the nation’s first primary of the season. That PAC is expected to step into play on Super Tuesday.

While the GOP candidates expend their resources pummeling each other in what could be a long fight, the president, who has no primary challenger, raised more last year than any of his potential rivals put together — more than $125 million.

Mr. Obama has also grudgingly accepted the help of a new super PAC, Priorities USA, which is run by some of his former aides.

2012, February 5 :

« it’s half time in America », the most talked about advertisement of the Super Bowl became one of the loudest flash points yet in the re election campaign :

– David Axelrod, Mr Obama’s chief political strategist, sent a twitter message shortly after it aired « powerful spot, did Clint Eastwood shoot that, or just narrate it? »

– Karl Rove, the Republican strategist said Chrysler was trying to settle a debt to the Obama administration

– Referring to Sergio Marchionne, Chrysler CEO, Mr Rattner said « he doesn’t need anything from the government at this point »

– Democrats dismissed the idea that the ad amounted to political payback,

– Mr Eastwood in an e mail said politics were not in the equation, « the ad doesn’t have a political message…it’s about American spirit, pride and job growth »

in the polarized political climate of an election year, even a tradition as routine as a football championship can the thrust into a partisan light.

 

2012, February 4 :

Newt Gingrich, with 25 % of voting intention vs 45 % for Mitt Romney in Nevada’s Caucus will still be benefiting  from the money of Sheldon Adelson, who’s invested already 10 $M in the Restore our Future Super Pac.

2012, January 12 :

Michelle Obama on Twitter : @MichelleNews

News about First Lady Michelle Obama – UNOFFICIAL Twitter Account

2012, January :

Negative adverts will increase the spendings in this election, thanks to Super PACs, the result of a 2009 Supreme Court ruling that allows groups , known as expenditure-only committees, to raise and spend unlimited sums of money.

Presidential campaigns can raise a max of $5,000 from an individual donor but Super PACS have no such constraints.

The groups reported raising a total of $32m as of January 1st, of which Restore Our Future had raised more than $12m.

Candidates campaigns and the Super PACS spent a combined $16m on adverts in Iowa. almost half of all TV commercials in the state have been attack adverts.

The Super PACS lead to a division of the task, the candidate will concentrate on the positive and leave the negative to these groups.

2011, October 24

2012 election season will break previous spending records. In the presidential race alone, money spent on TV and digital advertising will grow substantially, topping the more than $1 billion spent in the record-setting 2007-2008 campaign cycle.

Ken Goldstein, president of Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group, predicted $2.5 billion to $3.2 billion would be spent on all political advertising in this campaign cycle, with the presidential race accounting for a substantial portion of that ad spending.

« Ads in the presidential race will be the single largest sector, » Mr. Goldstein said.

President Barack Obama’s campaign has already spent about $1 million on internet ads, according to his campaign filings with the Federal Election Commission. An analysis by the Center for Responsive Politics shows the Obama campaign spent more than $26 million on internet advertising in 2007-2008 to help win the White House.

So far, his Republican challengers have spent a total of about $5 million on the internet.

As it has in the past, digital advertising is primarily intended to shore up a politician’s base, raise money and draw media attention to a campaign, said Jack Poor, VP-marketing at the Television Bureau of Advertising.

Mr. Poor said between 5% and 10% of advertising spending by White House hopefuls will be on digital ads. But he said increased money spent by presidential candidates on the internet will not mean less spent on TV, which he predicted will grow by 20%.

Most of that increase in TV spending will benefit local stations, although there may be some national advertising late in the campaign. Both the Obama and McCain campaigns bought national prime-time advertising in 2008. Local cable stations will receive about 15% of TV advertising dollars.

Money spent on print advertising, which the Center for Responsive Politics calculated at about $22 million in the 2007-2008 campaign, will lag considerably behind TV and internet spending.

 

13 juillet 2011 : since April, after 3 months of campaign,

Owned Media status :

9,1 M Twitter followers

22 M Facebook fans

Earned Media status :

31 000 one on one face to face conversations to reconnect with supporters

volunteers have been reaching out to supporters over the phone and in their communities logging over 290 000 conversations

552 462 people made a contribution

680 000 contributions have been made so far, with 98 % < 250 $, average beeing at 69 $

Owned and Earned efforts resulting in 86 M $ contribution after 3 months

 

25 mai 2011 : 2e visite d’état du Président  Obama en Grande Bretagne, Buckingham, Westminster, Kate et William…+ 1,76 M de fans sur Facebook (+9%) pour atteindre les 20,9M, meilleure opération de com que Ben Laden cf infra

5 mai 2011 : Ben Laden + 3 jours c’est + 142 060 fans pour Obama sur Facebook soit + 0,72 % seulement, à qui le tour ?

20 avril 2011 : Obama au siège de Facebook à Palo Alto pour parler économie en direct avec ses 19 millions d’amis…57 % des américains désapprouvent sa politique économique,

Donald Trump milliardaire rallié aux « birthers », grimpe dans les sondages (de 10 à 19 % des soutiens chez les Républicains selon CNN) en se démultipliant sur les plateaux TV (earned media) et dépasse 7 millions de téléspectateurs sur l’un de ses media privés « The Apprentice » sur NBC…

owned, earned media…avant la guerre du paid

8 avril 2011 : « are you in ? », ils sont déja 19 M sur Facebook et 7,3 M sur Twitter.

Sur le site : « This campaign is just kicking off. We’re opening up offices, unpacking boxes, and starting a conversation with supporters like you to help shape our path to victory. 2012 begins now, and this is where you say you’re in. »

visit the store !

4 avril 2011 : Le Président élu par les media payants avec une share of voice deux fois supérieure à celle de Mc Cain (cf POE Story Obama 2008) annonce sa candidature dans les media gratuits (You Tube).

Le site web, http://www.barackobama.com/media privé, star de la campagne 2008 est en place : donate now !

 

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